The hype train for the 2022 NFL season didn’t just leave the station, it jumped off the tracks, burst into the stratosphere, and began singing a collection of Tupac’s greatest hits.
People are going crazy with some of these predictions! I mean who’s sane pick the Lions and Jets to make the playoffs? Crazy, I tell you!
But nothing shows the illusion that has befallen many NFL fans, albeit quite like MVP betting trends.
After watching Aaron Rodgers win back-to-back MVP awards and seeing Patrick Mahomes dazzle on our flat screens every Sunday (or Thursday or Monday), and catching sight of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert taking monumental leaps to stardom, you’d think fans of the NFL would jump at the chance to bet on one of them to win the MVP title next season. Nope! Not even close.
According to OddsChecker US, the person receiving the most bets for NFL MVP in 2022 isn’t even in the top 10 by odds. Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts has received 25.9% of all bets for the NFL MVP over the past 30 days. He has +4000 – or 40 to 1 – odds of bringing the material home. That’s nearly twice as many bets as the next closest contender, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow.
Who do you think is third on this list? I guarantee you can’t guess it. Did you guess Matt Ryan? Bullshit. No chance you called that. It received 11.1% of the votes at +8000 odds. However, both Hurts and Ryan’s appearances on this list pale in comparison to who receives the fourth most votes for MVP… San Francisco’s Trey Lance! EH?! He receives 7.4% of all bets. That’s more than Rodgers and Mahomes combined, and equal to Allen and Herbert combined (the two are receiving 3.7% of bets right now)!
I know the kid is talented and Kyle Shanahan traded three first-round picks for him, so they must have a lot of faith in him, but NFL MVP? Sure, Patrick Mahomes won the award a year after sitting behind Alex Smith, but that was an anomaly. We can’t expect Lance to have the same kind of success, can we? It’s a tall order for anyone, no matter how talented, and while second-year QBs tend to exceed expectations, only two have won MVP honors after starting fewer than five games in their rookie season. – Mahomes and Kurt Warner. Are we really ready to put Lance at this level after completing just 57.7% of his passes last year, while Jimmy Garoppolo is still on the 49ers roster? I’m not ready for this. Bravo to all those who have the courage to make such a call, but not to me.
Lance received so many bets in May that after opening 200 to 1 to win MVP, Caesars’ Sportsbook has since lowered his odds to 60 to 1, but people are still betting on this man. ! Stop! Vegas is literally just taking money from you at this point. They don’t trade the odds because they watched Lance’s movie tape and thought “You know what? He has that guy in him! They only do this because so many people are betting on him that by lowering his odds to 60 to 1 people will be more inclined to put more money on him because 60 to 1 doesn’t have nearly the same payout than 200 to 1.
I’m for long shots when it comes to betting. I’ve been known to put money on crazy eight-game parlays just for fun, so if you put a chunk of change on Lance at 200 to 1, I respect it. Go for it or don’t go at all, am I right? However, even with those reduced odds, Lance still sees money pouring in from everywhere, while respected veterans like former MVP Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford see little to no love from bettors. Each of them has a payout greater than 10 to 1 and we know for a fact that they will be their team’s starters in week 1. I know the presumption is that Garoppolo will be gone at the start of the season, but until that That one day comes, and until the whole Deebo Samuel situation is resolved, claiming Lance as next year’s MVP seems a little difficult.
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