The Boston Celtics are on the verge of qualifying for the NBA Finals. Standing in their way is a Miami Heat team that looks set for the end of its season. See how we tone down the Heat and support Jaylen Brown’s hot hand with our accessory picks for Game 6 players.
Jayson Tatum’s near triple-double and Al Horford’s efficiency pushed the Boston Celtics to the brink of the NBA Finals on Wednesday, helped of course by Jaylen Brown’s hot shot. More importantly, the Miami Heat offense continued to crumble.
Give credit where credit is due: The Celtics had the best defense in the NBA in 2022, and it shows in these Eastern Conference Finals. Banking on this at home can be the key to turning a profit tonight, as we bring you our picks of NBA Game 6 player accessories…
Heat vs Celtics Game 6 Prop Choices
Click on each selection to proceed to the full scan. Each the odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market of regulated american sports betting.
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Heat vs. Celtics Game 6 Props
No buts about it
You looked, didn’t you? Miami is averaging 98.2 points in this series, up from 81.0 in the past two games. Remove Game 1 from the calculations — when neither Marcus Smart nor Al Horford were available for Boston — and the series average drops to 93.25. Finding ways to fade this offense right now is sensible, obvious and necessary, the last of those adjectives simply because this should be our last chance.
Jimmy Butler has been at the heart of the matter lately. After scoring 41 points in that Game 1 win, he’s only managed a combined 27 over the past three games, going 10 of 40 from the field and 1 of 7 from deep.
If Butler is hurt, he’ll never admit it. He’s not even listed in Miami’s detailed injury report. Butler will play through any discomfort for as long as he can, and he will doom the Heat in the process.
However, his Over/Under point total remains above 22 points. How anyone expects Butler to score more than a quarter of what could be Miami’s total production is a puzzle we won’t spend time on. On the contrary, we will benefit from it.
TAKE: Jimmy Butler Under 22.5 points (-110)
Covers NBA betting analysis
It’s less of a blow against Bam Adebayo than a blow against the entire Miami offense. If anyone on the Heat deserves credit for this streak, it’s Adebayo. The nimble center is averaging 14.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game as the Heat have otherwise struggled.
So why fade it? Because the intent is to blur every aspect of Miami’s offense, but this offense has been so abysmal, the books offer few props for players to exploit it. Starting in the early hours of Friday, point props are only widely available for Adebayo, Butler, and PJ Tucker. No Tyler Herro (genuinely questionable), no Kyle Lowry (questionable but also 1 of 12 in last two games), no Max Strus (also questionable, but also 0 of 16 in last two games).
Fading Tucker’s 7.5 points is a risk both because the total is so low and because the payout is, at best, -124. Fading Adebayo’s 16.5 points is a risk because if anyone on the Heat can top a total tonight, it’s him.
But his 2.5 assist prop? To positive money? It would depend on other Miami players making shots.
Strip Adebayo’s 32 of 52 in this series, and the rest of the Heat are shooting 37.95%. Over the last four games – again, excluding Game 1 and its lack of Smart and Horford – that drops to 35.67%. In the last two, 29.88%.
Miami doesn’t even make three out of 10 non-Adebayo shots. So to get past this prop, one would expect Adebayo to have to provide 11 shooting opportunities.
What’s more, he’s exceeded 2.5 assists only once in the Heat’s last seven games. Even with the six assists in Game 3, Adebayo is averaging just 2.4 assists per game this series. In other words, he’s averaging 1.5 assists per game in the other four.
Still, betting that he won’t pick up a third assist can be had at positive odds.
TAKE: Bam Adebayo Under 2.5 assists (+112)
What can Brown do for you?
Boston wants to end this series tonight. Returning to South Beach for Game 7 would be a tense moment the Celtics must avoid to improve their next-round chances against the Warriors. Boston knows it. The fans know it. Ime Udoka knows this.
So when the Celtics start rolling, Udoka will hit the gas pedal. He will not calm down late to rest his stars. He’ll face Miami’s guts until Erik Spoelstra waves a white flag that would match Tyler Herro’s sideline cut.
The biggest threat to Jaylen Brown not raining again is not his shot. It would be Udoka pulling him at the start of a rout. A decisive play reduces this risk.
Brown has shot at least four times from beyond the arc in three of five games this series, shooting 43.6 percent from deep. Nevertheless, doing it once more can be obtained at +140 odds.
Maybe Brown is calming down, but he hit 39.6 percent on his three in the playoffs while shooting 6.6 per game. In a sample of 16 games, these aren’t the numbers of a player one would assume is about to calm down.
And on a night when Udoka is expected to play Brown through the proverbial strip, he’ll have a few more chances to pitch.
TAKE: Jaylen Brown Over 3.5 three (+140)
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